Ethiopia has moved beyond the acute phase of the Tigray war, but the country is not post-conflict in any meaningful sense. Fighting in Amhara, unresolved grievances in Oromia and the fragile state of federal-regional relations continue to shape the operating environment for organisations across the country.
Residual conflict risk
- Amhara: sustained low-intensity conflict between federal forces and Fano militia, with periodic escalation.
- Oromia: OLA activity continues to affect movement in Wollega, Guji and parts of Bale.
- Tigray: reconstruction proceeds unevenly against a still-fragile political arrangement with Addis Ababa.
- Somali region: cross-border dynamics with Somalia continue to shape security in the east.
Investment and operational risk
The macroeconomic reform agenda — including FX liberalisation and privatisation — has opened doors that were closed for a decade, but the sequencing has created acute pressures on cost of doing business and pricing. Political risk sits alongside currency and regulatory risk as a joint constraint on investment decisions, not a separate one.
Ethiopia's macro reforms are real. So is the political fragility that makes them expensive to deliver.
Recommendations
Organisations with existing operations should update country risk assessments to reflect the differentiated regional picture — Ethiopia is not one operating environment, and treating it as one produces bad decisions. Organisations considering entry should sequence market study, political-economy analysis and security risk assessment before commercial commitment.