Threat Intelligence
Monitoring and analysis of emerging threats, armed actors, violent incidents and security developments.
INGO ADVISORY
Independent Security Research & Analysis
Understanding security risk across Africa, with a focus on East Africa and the Horn of Africa.
Independent open-source research examining conflict, political developments, operational risk, emerging threats and the changing security environment across Africa. Maintained by Mowlid Ali as a personal, non-commercial research and professional development initiative.
Current intelligence
Latest Intelligence
Recent source-attributed records and analyst assessments, with evidence limitations made visible.
Analytical coverage
Security Intelligence Across Complex Environments
Country & Regional Risk
Assessment of political, security and operational conditions across African countries and regions.
Conflict & Political Violence
Analysis of conflict dynamics, armed groups, political violence and escalation indicators.
Operational Risk
How changing security conditions may affect personnel, programmes, movement and operations.
Humanitarian Security
Analysis of operating environments, access constraints, incidents and contextual risks.
Early Warning
Indicators and developments that may signal deterioration, escalation or emerging risk.
Geographic coverage
Regional Intelligence
Horn of Africa
Somalia, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Eritrea, Sudan and South Sudan — security, political and operational dynamics.
View coverageEast Africa
Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and wider regional security developments.
View coverageRed Sea & Gulf of Aden
Maritime security, shipping risks, geopolitical competition and regional instability.
View coverageSudan & Neighbouring States
Conflict dynamics, displacement, border risks and regional spillover.
View coverageWider Africa
Selected country-risk and security developments across the continent.
View coverageAnalytical standards
Evidence before assertion
Published analysis distinguishes confirmed information, reported claims, assessed judgements and scenarios. Confidence and limitations are stated rather than implied.
Read the methodologyConfirmed
Reported
Assessed
Scenario
Open humanitarian resources
32 dashboards, forms and practical guides
Open-access tools for programme access, verification, compliance, supply chains, crisis preparedness and remote management.
Independent analyst profile
Meet the publisher
Mowlid Ali
Founder & Security Analyst
Africa-focused independent platform
mowlid@ingoadvisory.comProfessional enquiryMowlid Ali publishes security intelligence and risk analysis focused on Africa's complex operating environments, with particular analytical depth across Somalia, the Horn of Africa and East Africa.
“The standard is visible in the work: sources are named, confidence is stated, limitations are not hidden, and analysis is connected to practical operational decisions.”
Practitioner background
Complex environment operations
Published country and regional analysis covering Somalia, Somaliland, Kenya, Ethiopia, Sudan and South Sudan.
Security risk management
Demonstration threat assessments, risk registers, route tools and duty-of-care frameworks available for direct inspection.
Crisis leadership
Crisis-plan structures, incident escalation logic, action cards and business-continuity analysis published as open resources.
Intelligence practice
An Africa collection framework using graded sources, named provenance and explicit confidence language.
Coverage & sources
Regional focus
Somalia, the Horn of Africa and East Africa form the deepest areas of published coverage.
Continental coverage
Country records and thematic monitoring extend across all 54 African states.
Open-source basis
Institutional, humanitarian, academic, geospatial, maritime and media sources are documented in the source registry.
Briefings & publishing
Boardroom briefings
Decision-focused briefing formats show how complex risk can be communicated to leadership audiences.
Published analysis
Author of the INGO ADVISORY Africa assessment library — country risk records, thematic watches and operational briefs written in a six-part decision framework.
Practitioner training
Open templates demonstrate crisis-exercise, journey-management and duty-of-care methods.
Sample deliverable · issued to organisations
See how we assess exposure before you commission anything
Download a redacted sample country threat assessment — logistics and movement security at the Port of Berbera and along the Berbera corridor. It shows the structure, sourcing discipline and decision framework behind every INGO ADVISORY deliverable: what changed, where the exposure sits, what to watch and what to do about it.
- Six-part decision framework, boardroom format
- UK threat-level terminology throughout
- Exposure mapped to movement, cargo and personnel
- Client-attributable detail and thresholds redacted
Free for NGOs & charities
Free NGO tools — no sign-up, nothing uploaded
35 practitioner-built tools for NGOs, charities, faith and diaspora groups and local partners across Africa. Everything runs in your browser and downloads as a file you can attach to a security plan, donor annex or board paper.
Country security risk scoreScore a country across conflict, crime, terrorism and access to set your operating posture.NGO travel risk checkerCheck a planned trip against destination, route and traveller-profile risk factors.Emergency contact card & incident checklistPrint a wallet card with emergency numbers and first-hour incident actions.Security risk assessment matrixBuild a likelihood/impact risk register with treatment and residual scoring.Journey management plan builderProduce a route plan with check-in schedule, comms and abort criteria.Duty of care self-assessmentBenchmark your duty-of-care arrangements and identify the gaps first.
Free risk-scoring toolsCore security managementField safety packAccess & duty of careCommunity early warningGovernance & assuranceResilience & continuityVerification & partner assuranceMovement & medical planning
Browse all 35 free tools Trust & Standards
How we work, and how you can check it
Our standards are written down rather than asserted: methodology, sourcing and analyst accountability are all open to inspection before you commission work.
- Open-source methodology published
Collection layers, source reliability ratings and confidence scoring are documented on the Methodology page.
- Source attribution on every record
Each item carries publisher, original link, collection layer and a data-as-of timestamp.
- Client confidentiality
Assessment inputs are scored in your browser; readiness reports are generated locally.
- Analyst accountability
Assessments are attributable to a named analyst, with judgement separated from reporting.
- Africa-only scope discipline
Records outside the African continent are filtered out of the intelligence pipeline.
- Correction on request
Any record can be contested; corrections and retractions are logged against the original entry.
Corporate due diligence — company registration, professional memberships, information security posture, insurance cover — is provided directly to prospective clients and procurement teams on request as part of the contracting pack.